6/10/2012

America’s Great Depression: My Takeaways


Having gone through Rothbard’s very interesting book on the Great Depression, 



it is time to summarize for me: What did I take away from it?
  1. It’s a valid approach to summarize chapter by chapter for your own pleasure. This did greatly help me to really finish the book, which I did not achieve on 3 previous trials. Summarizing also helped me to gain understanding of the material presented.
  2. While I have a tendency towards Austrian Theory of the business cycle, I am no expert on the field. Summarizing the book does not mean I can agree or disagree on the main topics or even some details of the book, as I simply have neither the background-knowledge nor the time to do any scientific examination on any of the points taken within.
  3.  Having studied business administration, which included lessons on economics, I stand ashamed on how little I know about the Great Depression.
  4. After finishing the book , I am several hours of podcasts further on studying the topcic – and several articles, too. There are much more interesting aspects on the topic than Rothbard (could have) covered in his book. I will for sure continue to improve my knowledge on the field.
  5. The whole inflationary / deflationary cycle plays in my view a major role in the business cycle. After finishing he book, I am even more inclined to see the Austrian Theory as valid: government intervention and monetary policy create the first part of the business cycle – the inflationary boom. And I also see the catastrophic outcome of Hoovers interventionist actions on the state of the US and world economy.
  6. Still there are other, additional causes of the Great Depression – other economic theories also seem to have valid points. While non-intervention seems to be the right policy if you start with a balanced economy, that has not be intervened upon previously – things get more complicated when you do not have ideal starting conditions.
  7. So once you are in a crisis – like in 1929 or today – it obviously is not easy to define the right measures. For sure, Hoover did take the wrong actions on some fields: higher tariffs, not allowing wage rates to adopt, interventionist actions siding part of the economy only (banks, rail-roads, …), banning immigration …
    On other fields I am not so sure: public works as long as they are temporary and create infrastructure really needed (which maybe 50 % of government infrastructure projects not do); pubic relief programs (still allowing wage rates to adjust, but maybe avoiding the impact of adjustments going too far thus hitting the consumption level too hard); change of monetary policy from inflation to ….to whatever (how do you get a drug addict to being sober? Controlled, slow reduction of the intake? Or sudden reduction to zero? He should take no drugs at the end – but what way to reach this goal would harm him less?)
  8. This is all an almost-academic discussion. I opted to invest hours of my time to gain a little bit more of understanding. What good does it do to the decisions our political leaders will take today? Did they ever gain the level of insight I have – as limited as it might be? How much does the average man on the street with one vote to take to the ballot on the next occasion - care?
To summarize: I do not see any short term trade-takeaways here. I see, I have to learn much more to gain better understanding. I fear (and know) that the whole subject has little influence on the average man-on-the-street or even the average politician. As Mark Twain said: ‘History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.‘ I am afraid, we are doomed to make not the same, but similar errors leading to comparable harm.

1 comment:

  1. I do not believe that many European politicians understand a lot about business cycles, given the fact that only a few of German politicians studied business adminstration at university. Many majored in law, but that's about it.

    So we have people who are NOT experts in this field supposed to understand a crisis of historic proportions AND choose the right array of measures. This can't be easy (and in fact it can't work), given the fact that even experts in the field have diverging views which measures are appropriate and, to put it bluntly, NO CLUE what might happen next. Recently I listened to a Financial Sense podcast from March, I think, in which the author more or less swore that Greece would opt out of the Euro zone within the next six weeks. He sounded very convincing, his arguments were sound, and yet Greece is still part of the Euro zone.
    There are too many factors to be taken into account, and people or adminstrations do not always act rationally.

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