Gold dropped 5 % today, as Ben Bernanke's remarks to Congress damped speculation of more quantitative easing. Gold trades somewhat under 1.700 USD now, close to the 200 day average at 1.675.
Sit back a moment. This means no more inflation? Rising interest rates? Solid financial polity? Solid monetary policy in the US and Europe? So paper money will gain in value in future?
Count the 'NO'-answers you gave mentally to these questions. 3 'NO' or more? Maybe you should watch the GLD closely during the next few days. Also watch the physical demand, and not the value of paper gold only.
If GLD stays above the 200 day average or recovers from a drop below, I would say this would be a good time to initiate a position or add to a position.
2/12/2012
Antifragility
If you liked Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb then I got good news for you: he currently writes a new book on Antifragility.
What is Antifragility? Well, I guess you know what fragile means. Think about a glass to drink water. You can put stress on it, put it on a table a 100 times. Drop it once from 4 feets - it breaks. Thats fragile: things that break under a certain level of stress but do not change on less stress.
What Nassim Taleb calls antifragility is a little different. It means that put under stress, a thing would improve. So the glass would have to become stronger each time you put it on the table in order to be antifragile. And if you put it on the table often enough, finally it might be able to withstand a larger drop.
Now you think: this concept is irrelevant. No glass becomes stronger by putting it on a table. But think about your muscles. How do you train them? You stress them, they got hurt, even injured at a micro-level, but they get stronger by exactly this stress and next time you can run faster, lift more weights, push harder. Antifragile.
And the economy? Wasn't the original concept that each failure of a company makes the whole system gets stronger? That the survival of the fittest would lead to a stronger species?
Nassim Talebs book will not be out for sale till summer 2012. But you can get a 60 min interview with him on this topic at Econtalk.
What is Antifragility? Well, I guess you know what fragile means. Think about a glass to drink water. You can put stress on it, put it on a table a 100 times. Drop it once from 4 feets - it breaks. Thats fragile: things that break under a certain level of stress but do not change on less stress.
What Nassim Taleb calls antifragility is a little different. It means that put under stress, a thing would improve. So the glass would have to become stronger each time you put it on the table in order to be antifragile. And if you put it on the table often enough, finally it might be able to withstand a larger drop.
Now you think: this concept is irrelevant. No glass becomes stronger by putting it on a table. But think about your muscles. How do you train them? You stress them, they got hurt, even injured at a micro-level, but they get stronger by exactly this stress and next time you can run faster, lift more weights, push harder. Antifragile.
And the economy? Wasn't the original concept that each failure of a company makes the whole system gets stronger? That the survival of the fittest would lead to a stronger species?
Nassim Talebs book will not be out for sale till summer 2012. But you can get a 60 min interview with him on this topic at Econtalk.
2/04/2012
Regulation and taxation creeping up
Last week I had 3 issues indicating more regulation and taxation. For one week, that's not a small number!
1) Taxation on US dividends is 25 % now, up from 15 % last year. With monthly dividends of GoldCorp this is not really fun. German taxation compensates for 15 % withholding tax only - the remaining 10 % you would have to get back from the US state or accept double taxation. Guess discussing with US tax authorities would be a hazzle and maybe costs more in time and money, than you get back.
2) Logging into a Swiss online account from Germany / with a German IP troubles the head of Swiss bankers. This week I had to go through a lot of disclaimers for the first time ever. Looks like Swiss banks are really frightened by now - Schäubles Kavalerie at the front door, US claims at the back door, and whistle-blowers inside the house is not very comforting.
3) Austrian state seems to be worried about folks registered but not paying taxes. Not only me but also my girlfriend got an inquiry regarding this situation - that's no coincidence. I was always registered at the house of my parents, but not paying taxes for several years government starts to worry. Well, at least the systems seems to work better than in Greece.
Those are just 3 personal observations. Guess you could share some, too. Feel free to make a comment.
1) Taxation on US dividends is 25 % now, up from 15 % last year. With monthly dividends of GoldCorp this is not really fun. German taxation compensates for 15 % withholding tax only - the remaining 10 % you would have to get back from the US state or accept double taxation. Guess discussing with US tax authorities would be a hazzle and maybe costs more in time and money, than you get back.
2) Logging into a Swiss online account from Germany / with a German IP troubles the head of Swiss bankers. This week I had to go through a lot of disclaimers for the first time ever. Looks like Swiss banks are really frightened by now - Schäubles Kavalerie at the front door, US claims at the back door, and whistle-blowers inside the house is not very comforting.
3) Austrian state seems to be worried about folks registered but not paying taxes. Not only me but also my girlfriend got an inquiry regarding this situation - that's no coincidence. I was always registered at the house of my parents, but not paying taxes for several years government starts to worry. Well, at least the systems seems to work better than in Greece.
Those are just 3 personal observations. Guess you could share some, too. Feel free to make a comment.
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