Today, two different news items about Gold got my attention:
- US Republicans consider to set up a commission to examine a return to a gold standard.
Republicans eye a return to gold standard
- Basel III will count Gold as a Tier 1 asset, meaning it as good as liquidity. Until now, it was treated as Tier III asset, meaning it would account only for 50 % of its market value when it comes to equity requirements.
What does Basel III do for Gold
Gold is at 1.664 USD/ounze today - which corresponds to 1.331 EUR/oz.
8/27/2012
8/26/2012
DAX 30 Outlook
On July 15th I posted on the DAX30 outlook. Finding some time today, I want to do an update on this. Fundamentally, I still think Europe is not out of the woods and you there are indications of a slowing economy towards the end of the year. For the last weeks, Europe got some relieve from political 'input' as most of these guys and gals took their 'deserved days off'. This may change coming September, but the focus will also be stronger on the US. Here we will see heating up of the presidential campaign and a hitting of the debt limit. So, maybe focus will not be on Europe so much.
From the 30 DAX stocks, I see 12 in an upward, positive chart picture as of today. Only one - MAN - looks really ugly and worth a short; the rest of the pack I would rate neutral. This is a far to positive outlook if you ask me about my gut feeling. Besides my bearish feeling about economy, the DAX not hodling the 7.000 level is a negative making me scratch the head. But: never fight the ticker.
For the next lines I will put my July 15th suggestions into brackets and follow with some comments on the outcome and my look on how to position as of today.
DAX 30 (6971) [6557; enter if 6.600 taken out upwards, use 6.000 or MVA200 as S/L]. The entry was okay, but the 6.600 S/L was too tight. You might have entered at 6.650 if you did check every day - with the tight stop you would have exited at 6.440 perhaps. With the long stop you would still be in at 6.970.
If still in I would raise the S/L to 6.800 now. If the index shows numbers above 7.000 at day end, I would enter; but not before. The last few days could be the start of a correction, though the underlying stocks do not suggest so.
Addidas (62.16) [57,9; suggested to stay neutral as long as in 56 to 60 trading range]. Here we had an upward outbreak and are trading now at 62. I think you can enter here with a stop at 60.
Allianz (87.36) [79,06; no strong but rather upward suggestion with tight S/L] Guess if you entered, you would have been stopped out rather shortly be 3 violent down days. Stock is now 10 % higher and it looks positive to me now. Like all the financial stocks in the index, recent performance is good. I think this is mainly based on the expectation that Draghi and the EZB will support the EUR strongly in the next weeks.
BASF (62.13) [55.96; Stay away until outbreak above 58] By now we did see this entry signal, I would stay long now on this quality paper with a S/L at 58.
Bayer (61,46) [58,3; long with several strategies and S/L, highest at 56] You should be in now with any of the S/L not taken out on day-end basis. That's a 10 % plus and I would move S/L up to 59,5 now, securing some profit. If you have a large enough position, maybe you can be even tighter on S/L of half of it.
BMW (60,05) [57.77; neutral] I would stay neutral here, though the stock did gain some ground. I got a long signal here, though I would not execute it until we end above MVA200 (61.83).
Beiersdorf (57.14) [53,48; you should be long following suggestions] After a nice move up stock is now trading in a narrow range between 56.2 and 57.3. This is a level above / around 10-year highs and I would stay long here. maybe raise the S/L to 53 (and even 55 for 50 % of position).
Commerzbank (1.271) [1,24; short suggestion that bottomed at 1.127] I would exit here for more or less a wash. With recent run-up of financial, stock did find a bottom.
Daimler (40.98) [36.4; neutral as BMW] Actually looks strong since end of July, but I am still not feeling good about auto stocks. Technically a long with S/L at 38
Deutsche Bank (27,255) [25,6; suggested short with S/L at 30] No change in my feelings about fundamentals; but some sort of QE could drive it up. MVA200 stabilizes around 30 now ... no change in strategy.
Deutsche Börse (41.38) [42,11; neutral] Still within 38/44 borders - no change.
Dt. Lufthansa (9,83) [9.745; S/L 1 EUR below entry] Stock changed to a sideways move. I have not found a good explanations why it was moving up nor why it stopped now. I would clearly raise the S/L now to MVA200 level of 9.60 if you are in. And I would not enter here unless we see a trend again.
Deutsche Post (15.325) [14.35]; neutral until 15 is taken out] Stock is above 15.00 now; leave S/L at 13.8
Deutsche Telekom (9.50) [9.18; suggested entry and S/L at 8.8] Entry worked and I would maybe raise the S/L to ensure the position will not get negative. This would be around 9.20 and giving not much room for movement. But that depends on you overall risk in all your positions, of course.
E.ON (18.05) [17.645; watch trading range of 16 to 18] During the last days, we had kind of an outbreak here. It is slow, not very convincing. MVAs I watch are around 17 now So if you want to enter here, do so with S/L at 17.
FMC (56.66) [57.05; long with 55 as S/L level] It is of course more dangerous to trade a stock on charts when it is involved in merger discussions. (Same is true before major announcements, such as Q earnings or Capital Market Days.) Would not change trading ratio here.
Fresenius (84.4) [85.62] See above.
Heidelberger (40,475) [37,12; stay neutral] By now I would say this is trending up and you can enter with a S/L at 17.
Henkel (59,58) [55,12; long play with stop around 50] Moved up to 61 and is in new multi-year-highs range. This was a nice entry giving you 8 % heads-up now. Raise S/L to 56 or 58 by now.
Infineon (5,63) [5,23; short with S/L at 5.6] This short play turned around at 5.0 and should be stopped out by now. Stay neutral.
K+S (39.83) [37.95; long with tight stop or wait for 40 to be broken] Kali+Salz was above 40 until Friday. Following any of my recommendations, you should still be long. I would move the S/L to 38 now and either stay long or enter again it the 40 level can be defended for some days.
Linde (125.05) [117.5; stay neutral until 120 is broken] Well it was and looks like with more certainty on acquisition topics, we could move up again here. For me this is a long now with 120 being the S/L. MVA200 at 121.34 now.
MAN (74.65) [80.75; neutral, be careful, watch resistance at 78; no entry below 85] 78 level was taken out end of July and MAN is in a range between 74 and 77 now. Looks bearish now and I still would stay away because of the influence of VW on it.
Merck (90.39) [78.1; neutral - long way to recent highs at 86] Well, those highs have been taken out by now. Price now at levels not seen since 2008. As always when you miss such fast moves you do not only feel bad, but you also have the problem of developing a new strategy. Chart looks like a pole showing north. Maybe wait for a set-back to 86?
Metro (23.825) [20.14; short with 2 S/L-suggestions] The narrower limit has been taken out; The wider one is at 27. If you are still short, I would stay with that S/L. Otherwise stay neutral.
Munich RE (116.85) [114.1; trading range 100 to 116] Made it out of the range to 120, following financials. This could be a rather low-risk entry positions to a dividend stock. If it falls back to 112, I would get out of the way.
RWE (32.8) [34.06; long with S/L at 30.8] Think the idea is still in place - stay in as long as it trades above MVA200.
SAP (51.69) [48.9; long with S/L at 44] Move up somewhat, but could not take out 2012 highs. Raise S/L to 47.6 (MVA200) and maybe take profits around 54 for part of the position.
Siemens (74.54) [68.03; neutral - stay away at least until 72] 72 was taken out and Siemens trades now below a resistance level at 76. I still do not like it, though it was down to 63 earlier this year.
ThyssenKrupp (16.21) [14.5; I rated neutral, but made aware of the play on a trend reversal, which seems to be in place now. Lows from June have not been hit again. Guess you can play the upward movement as long as 15 is in place.
VW (142.6) [137.1; long] We hit the next resistance level mentioned in my prior post. Guess I would stay long here, but raise the S/L to 140.
So that was the look back. Clearly, you cannot leave your stocks alone for such a long time trading with close stops. I just did not find the time to post earlier. Putting both blogs together with you favorite charting software should give you an impression of the trading idea behind.
8/24/2012
German Racing Bets and Lotteries Act (Rennwett- und Lotteriegesetz RennwLottG)
Guess I missed some points in my recent post on POKER. Bwin.com just informed me, that from 1st of July, 2012 onwards all sports bets in Germany are subject to a 5 % tax on the amount wagered. This is due to a recent change in the German Racing Bets and Lotteries Act (Rennwett- und Lotteriegesetz RennwLottG). There seems to be an obligation of any provider located wherever in the world to pay this tax on bets of German residents (do not ask me, how this can be executed ... I guess if I place bets with an US broker, I would not pay the tax).
This is another example of ever increasing tax burdens, especially during the last months and years. It hardly hit the news. Folks out there: any other increases in taxes and fees lately we should be aware of?
This is another example of ever increasing tax burdens, especially during the last months and years. It hardly hit the news. Folks out there: any other increases in taxes and fees lately we should be aware of?
8/22/2012
How low can you go ... reloaded!
With tears in my eyes and a smile on my face I did read the 'SPIEGEL', today.
Living in Germany, you have to be accustomed to certain absurd facts by now. For example, you should not be surprised to see some of the German states buying stolen goods. Data stolen from Swiss banks is bought on a regular basis by German tax authorities. Later on, this data is used to prosecute people cheating on German taxes by transferring their money to Switzerland.
Nevertheless, German authorities encourage employees of Swiss banks to steal data by demonstrating month over month that they are willing to pay millions of EUR for this data.
How about allowing 'people' to break into the apartments of tax payers to steal their personal documents showing tax fraud? How about paying them for such action?
Now it gets even better!
For years, German state argued that POKER is a game of chance. Therefore, you are allowed to play POKER for money (face to face, against computers, online) only in registered, licensed casinos. In Germany this means they are more or less state-run and the state takes all the profits. To play at Pokerstars.com for money is theoretically not allowed. And companies like bwin are prosecuted for not adhering to the rules. Internet knows no borders ... such rules get kind of absurd.
Good thing about German regulation: all your winnings in 'games of chance' are tax free in Germany. So all the state run games of chance lead to tax free winnings.
But now the tax authorities of Cologne changed their position: POKER is no game of chance. Therefore all the German winners at the World Series of Poker (WSOP), at PokerStars.com, and all the other events would be eligible for income tax.
(GULP)
So, when the state fears competition in 'games of chance', it declares POKER as game of chance. And therefore decides nobody but the state is allowed to run such games. And therefore bwin, PokerStars, PartyPoker .... they are considered like the Mafia as organized crime.
But when there are winnings to be taxed, POKER is no game of chance. So winnings and results from the game depend on skills and experience. Like a sport ... And therefore everybody playing regularly does so for an intention to make profits. And therefore can be taxed.
Related atricle of 'Der Spiegel'
Hey, maybe we use this kind of 'rationality' for our own purpose.
Capital gains. You have to pay tax on them. It is kind of an income tax ... in some countries you pay your personal income tax rate on capital gains, in others somewhat less.
But, let us face the realities. Capital gains are a game of chance!
Is there any rationality behind the valuation of governments bonds? Which of them will default, which not? Or is this only determined by political decisions without rational backing?
How many professional fund managers can outperform the market? Only a few? Are the returns from funds distributed like a bell-shaped curve? Yes? So if the distribution is bell-shaped, shouldn't that indicate a 'game of chance'?
Can anybody do a forecast on the timing of the next quantitative easing of the major central banks? No? Will that impact equity prices? Yes? If you cannot forecast it - won't it hit you like a non-predictable event? An accident? A game of chance?
How about taxes, duties, anti-dumping fees? Can you really predict new legislation on such items?
And what about incentives? German renewable-energy refunds? Italian ones? Tax credits? Predictable? NO? The impact on single stocks - a game of chance!
There are a lot of arguments why investing money in the capital markets is not a profession, but a game of chance. The mediocre or even worse rates of return of the average, 'professional' (meaning: dedicating lots of time) investor being one of the strongest.
So why should a private person, having only limited time and money resources available, pay tax on capital gains? If even the most educated persons, dedicating all of their work time cannot achieve above-average results? Why should the private investor having less resources available, be able to achieve positive, year-in year-out results? And if that is not the case ... doesn't it sound like a 'ame of chance'?
Conclusio: Investment is a game of chance! It should not be taxed!
Living in Germany, you have to be accustomed to certain absurd facts by now. For example, you should not be surprised to see some of the German states buying stolen goods. Data stolen from Swiss banks is bought on a regular basis by German tax authorities. Later on, this data is used to prosecute people cheating on German taxes by transferring their money to Switzerland.
Nevertheless, German authorities encourage employees of Swiss banks to steal data by demonstrating month over month that they are willing to pay millions of EUR for this data.
How about allowing 'people' to break into the apartments of tax payers to steal their personal documents showing tax fraud? How about paying them for such action?
Now it gets even better!
For years, German state argued that POKER is a game of chance. Therefore, you are allowed to play POKER for money (face to face, against computers, online) only in registered, licensed casinos. In Germany this means they are more or less state-run and the state takes all the profits. To play at Pokerstars.com for money is theoretically not allowed. And companies like bwin are prosecuted for not adhering to the rules. Internet knows no borders ... such rules get kind of absurd.
Good thing about German regulation: all your winnings in 'games of chance' are tax free in Germany. So all the state run games of chance lead to tax free winnings.
But now the tax authorities of Cologne changed their position: POKER is no game of chance. Therefore all the German winners at the World Series of Poker (WSOP), at PokerStars.com, and all the other events would be eligible for income tax.
(GULP)
So, when the state fears competition in 'games of chance', it declares POKER as game of chance. And therefore decides nobody but the state is allowed to run such games. And therefore bwin, PokerStars, PartyPoker .... they are considered like the Mafia as organized crime.
But when there are winnings to be taxed, POKER is no game of chance. So winnings and results from the game depend on skills and experience. Like a sport ... And therefore everybody playing regularly does so for an intention to make profits. And therefore can be taxed.
Related atricle of 'Der Spiegel'
Hey, maybe we use this kind of 'rationality' for our own purpose.
Capital gains. You have to pay tax on them. It is kind of an income tax ... in some countries you pay your personal income tax rate on capital gains, in others somewhat less.
But, let us face the realities. Capital gains are a game of chance!
Is there any rationality behind the valuation of governments bonds? Which of them will default, which not? Or is this only determined by political decisions without rational backing?
How many professional fund managers can outperform the market? Only a few? Are the returns from funds distributed like a bell-shaped curve? Yes? So if the distribution is bell-shaped, shouldn't that indicate a 'game of chance'?
Can anybody do a forecast on the timing of the next quantitative easing of the major central banks? No? Will that impact equity prices? Yes? If you cannot forecast it - won't it hit you like a non-predictable event? An accident? A game of chance?
How about taxes, duties, anti-dumping fees? Can you really predict new legislation on such items?
And what about incentives? German renewable-energy refunds? Italian ones? Tax credits? Predictable? NO? The impact on single stocks - a game of chance!
There are a lot of arguments why investing money in the capital markets is not a profession, but a game of chance. The mediocre or even worse rates of return of the average, 'professional' (meaning: dedicating lots of time) investor being one of the strongest.
So why should a private person, having only limited time and money resources available, pay tax on capital gains? If even the most educated persons, dedicating all of their work time cannot achieve above-average results? Why should the private investor having less resources available, be able to achieve positive, year-in year-out results? And if that is not the case ... doesn't it sound like a 'ame of chance'?
Conclusio: Investment is a game of chance! It should not be taxed!
8/07/2012
FTS - French FinanzTransaktionsSteuer --- how PSEUDO can you go?
This new tax at 0.2 per cent of the transaction volume has to be paid starting August the 1st. Finally a small success against big Wall Street and all the bad hedge funds and evil banks. Finally F. Hollande shows some balls. Finally a politician making head against the markets.
Today I got notification about the details on this tax from one of my brokers (shame on the others). The tax applies:
I am not sure I can translate this perfectly, but it goes like this: The tax has to be paid on the net buying/selling amount of one day.
The example following shows clearly: if you buy 1.000 shares in the morning and sell 500 in the afternoon, you pay FTS only on 500 shares.
...
Lean back.
...
Take breath.
...
Stay calm.
...
This crappy socialist politicians tell us something about hitting the 'evil markets'. About 'bad' banks and hedge funds. About computer trading - high speed execution ... and how 'evil' all that is.
And then they initiate a tax that will NOT hit computer traders. A tax that will not even hit day traders? Something that will only hit Mom and Dad investing for their retirement?
How PSEUDO can you be? How much of a LIAR?
And it gets better:
- whereas my Swiss broker (swissquote) makes sure that i pay minimum transaction tax by netting the deals of a day
- my German borker tells me that he is not obliged to do so and would tansfer the tax to the French government anyways ...
So it depends on how nice your borker is whether you pay or do not pay the tax.
I stand aside - shocked!
PS:
And one final question: will this ever hit the news?
Today I got notification about the details on this tax from one of my brokers (shame on the others). The tax applies:
- on any buy of french stocks (not trading in Paris/France, but companies registered in France)
- only if market cap is above EUR 1 bn (but this limit could change - currently 109 companies qualify)
- only for a transaction vs. money (read: no execution of options, share exchange, etc.)
I am not sure I can translate this perfectly, but it goes like this: The tax has to be paid on the net buying/selling amount of one day.
The example following shows clearly: if you buy 1.000 shares in the morning and sell 500 in the afternoon, you pay FTS only on 500 shares.
...
Lean back.
...
Take breath.
...
Stay calm.
...
This crappy socialist politicians tell us something about hitting the 'evil markets'. About 'bad' banks and hedge funds. About computer trading - high speed execution ... and how 'evil' all that is.
And then they initiate a tax that will NOT hit computer traders. A tax that will not even hit day traders? Something that will only hit Mom and Dad investing for their retirement?
How PSEUDO can you be? How much of a LIAR?
And it gets better:
- whereas my Swiss broker (swissquote) makes sure that i pay minimum transaction tax by netting the deals of a day
- my German borker tells me that he is not obliged to do so and would tansfer the tax to the French government anyways ...
So it depends on how nice your borker is whether you pay or do not pay the tax.
I stand aside - shocked!
PS:
And one final question: will this ever hit the news?
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