5/14/2012

Down Day on the DAX - how about the DOW?

Yesterday I posted on the DAX, being quite bearish. Today it is down close to 2 % in the after-hours - will all 30 members in the red.

It was also not a particularly good day regarding the news flow. Talks about how Greece could leave the EUR dominate - suggestions are introducing the USD or creating Greek debit notes (I-owe-Us). And - of course: not paying back any debt denominated in EUR. This led to the EUR dropping below 1.285 versus the USD.

In the meantime, we still have no Greek government. Talks are, that Greek parties might agree to form a short term government, continuing the austerity programs just long enough to receive the next tranche of EU-subsidies. Being a German tax payer I can only say: Ich fühle mich verarscht!

Doing the same exercise for the DOW 30 I did for the DAX30 yesterday, I get the following picture:

BUY (8): American Express, At&T, CocaCola, Disney, Kraft, Pfizer, Travelers, Verizon

NEUTAL (12): Boeing, Chevron, Exxon, HomeDepot, INTEL, IBM, J&J, Merck, Microsoft, P&G, Wal-Mart, 3M

SELL (10): Alcoa, BofA, CAT, Cisco, DuPont, GE, HP, JPM, McDonalds, United Technologies

That's a much more balanced picture than at the DAX30. Still a drop below 12,700 on the DOW would look ugly to me. I would carefully what that level - and also around 1,330 on the S&P. If those do not hold, we are either in big trouble of B52-Ben will come to support us again.

Disclosure: I am short the DAX30, Siemens, the DOW30 and might initiate further short positions on DAX30 and DOW30 companies within the next 72 hours.



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