9/09/2012

EZB decission destabilizes FX markets

ECB decided last week on buying 'unlimited' amounts of short-term bonds to address distortions and 'unfounded' fears of investors about the survival of the EURO. Only the German Bundesbank and his head Jens Weidmann objected to the plan. The operation will address the secondary market, not buying troubled / toxic bonds from the PIGS and other stressed countries directly. 

The announcement led to a spike in European stocks, with the DAX closing above 7.200 on Friday; the EuroStoxx50 above 2.500; the Swiss Market Index SMI above 6.500, and a rise of the FTSE from 5.650 to 5.800 at the end of the week. The DOW30 is clearly above 13.000 now and the S&P500 continues its way to 1.500 ...
This all, despite worsening economic outlook around the globe.

Gold jumped to 1.735 and is on the rise again. The consolidation form the last peak above 1.900 USD lasted above one year and the metal seems to gain momentum again. Silver also spiked to 33.6 USD - gaining 10 % in the last 10 days.

So far you can argue that the markets had not discounted all the additional liquidity from the ECB move and made up for it on Thursday and Friday. With a move that will clearly push inflation up, this seems logical - and you never know who did bet on Draghi's announcement before the fact and who jumped the train when he was leaving the station. 

It gets a little bit weird when you look at the USD/EUR ratio, which jumped to 1.2815. Comments here state an increased trust in the EURO  and weak US labor market data. Well, you can understand those arguments per se. But together with rising stock markets the make less sense.

Even more astonishing was the move of the Swiss Franc (CHF) to me. In recent month it was kept close to 1.20 CHF/EUR by massive intervention of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Estimated EUR 50 to 100 bn where bought by the SNB each month in order to keep the 1.20 ratio established. This lead to a huge spike in foreign currency reserves of the SNB. Recently comments on how long this procedure can be kept up got more vivid.




It is unclear, what led to the CHF jump above 1.21 vs. the EUR at the end of the week. One reason could be that money left the CHF as trust in the stabilization of the EURO-zone did rise. Ohter reason would be, that the pressure on the SNB to buy EURO was lifted somewhat by the EZB comments and following expectations of the market.
In that case, it was maybe a wise move of the SNB not to start selling EURO immediately but let the CHF get awy from the 1.20 limit set. If the market could drive the ratio to lets say 1.25, the SNB could even take some profit from the intervention - starting to sell EURO at such a level.

One other think I am always a little bit worried about: When markets move fast, at a weekend - and with all the manipulation from governments we have to live with nowadays - can the regulators and bureaucrats act fast enough? We know that the EU summits are often on weekends, so  that markets are not directly influenced. Decisions have to be made, before Monday morning Asia starts to trade.  
But are there really SNB bankers with authority to change the trading strategy available Friday afternoon, when New York is still trading? Or can the market catch them off guard?

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