7/28/2012

A lot of ZigZag - nothing changed ... ? ... ! .... ??

What did we see in the last week? A lot of action.
  •  DAX30 did break out upwards last week, just to fall back violently
  • European PIGS countries bond rates climbed fast
  • Core countries like Germany and Austria still with negative bond rates
  • EUR recovered vs. the USD
  • GOLD jumped over 1.600 USD
  • DAX30 recovered strongly on Thursday and Friday
This is the 'perfect' environment to trade. Violent moves up or down. Technical levels taken out for 2 days. Fast reversals afterwards. I was shaken out on the upwards move (gave up my equity protection) and on the downward move (sold most of my European equity positions entered last week; sold 50 % of  Gold miners).
Trading was too fast for me to re-enter the market - so I missed the rally of the last 2 days.

Psychologically, what happened to me? I could clearly see the set-ups a week ago. DOW30 and DAX30 with many stocks breaking out upwards or hitting new highs. Hard to understand, as the economic outlook seems to be deteriorating everywhere. Still this was looking really strong, especially for US stocks with an EUR loosing more and more value. Why fight the market? So I entered a few positions and exited protection.

Once the European stocks and gold miners did break down, I was really fast in exiting positions. My overall sentiment is still bearish, so I pulled the trigger. Too fast - maybe. But the move seemed to make sense - the market finally getting the message. In addition, at this point, the support levels for GLD and SLV looked vulnerable. Exiting positions made sense to me, as a drop from support levels would be violent and deep.
Then came Draghi with his 'ready to do whatever it takes'. And the market jumped upwards and the EUR regained strength.GOLD jumped over 1.600 USD and DOW30, SPY500 and DAX30 are giving clear positive signals.

Lets lean back for a moment:
  • economic outlook did not improve - latest data from the US confirms this
  • solution to the EUR crisis is not any closer than it was a month before
  • over the weekend, first voices remind the EZB it has no mandate to buy bonds of Spain or Italy 
  • German politicians in second line voice warnings to the EZB
  • GOLD looks more of a protections in this situation then ever
  • top gold miners had weak Q2 performance (Barrick, Newmont, GoldCorp) doing further damage to gold stock
So, what to do? Guess I will lean back another 24 hours to evaluate the picture and do ... nothing!

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