IPM&CS Munich - Part V - The Speeches
Int. Precious Metals & Commodities Show Munich - PART V
Int. Edelmetall- & Rohstoffmesse München - Teil 5
Here comes the fifth and final part of my report from the Munich Edelmetall- & Rohstoffmesse. I will have at least one follow-up, as I visited a speech of Schweizerische Metallhandelsgesellschaft yesterday.
The speeches came in two kinds. Type I was 20 minutes speeches from companies, mostly miners and explorers. This had little value to me, as I was quite unprepared and I am not the kind of technical guy, who can make an evaluation on drill hole results and the kind. Still I watched several of those, as otherwise it would have been impossible to get a seating on the Type II speeches.
One that made some impression was BacTech Einvironmental Corp. The company is using the tailings of mines and uses bacteria to recover metals left behind.
Type II speeches were more of general, macro type. I will give you several links here of the guys I watched and will address the major points they made.
Major points:
- there was no 'deflationist' - not a single one I listened to. Everyone was quite sure, that inflation will happen (or: not happen, but be the choice politicians will make). Well, you could argue, that is no surprise given the surrounding of the Precious Metals & Commodities Show. But Gold was always marketed as an asset, you could - also - invest in during deflation. So seeing no deflationist was a surprise to me.
- people are really willing to listen to a very theoretical presentation about Mises, Hayek, and the Theory of Money today. Well, not the average teenager on the street, but at least 300 to 400 folks. I really like to see, that Austrian economists are on vogue again.
- I did see the worst presentation I ever - ever - saw. And this one was paid for! It was the presentation of Prof. Dr. Han-Jürgen Bocker. The worst slides I have ever seen! Jokes that are politically non-correct - very much so. Really disgusting trash-talk, treating woman as inferior objects. And the guy was even proud of being able to go on with this s..t for hours. But: the room was full, the listeners yelled, even the quite educated visitors of the show did fall for him.
He was spitting out everything he knoww, all at once. Not that the facts would be false. But dropping them on your listeners all at once, with no structure, no idea how to make it a logical story, not picking them up where they stand and leading them some steps upwards ... you just drown folks, overlaod them with facts, overnews them.
- Uwe Bergold - one of the speakers sponsored by proaurum.de was one of the long-term orientated speakers. He pretty much demonstrated to me, how hard it is for me to trust somebody talking with a local slang (Bavarian in this case). But it was a nice presentation, with good facts. Not really new to me, citing sources like Shadowstats.com I follow since years.
Very important statement he made: Every market booms and busts. So you have to think about your exit strategy in advance. The gains of years and decades can vanish in a few months when a market crashes. So make sure, you are in a position to exit when it is time to do so.
But for the moment, Bergold still is bearish on paper money ... and therefore suggest to buy precious metals.
- Best presentation I ever saw life was Gerald Celente. His name was not totally new to me, as Jim Puplava interview him several times at FinancialSense. But what he delivered - in a huge room totally overcrowded - did surprise me. I was expecting a speaker with hundreds of presentations behind him --- but he looked to me as pushing for impact very much. Someone very dedicated to make an impact, to change the picture, to influence the developmet.
The presentation was so much different to Bocker. Hardly any text. Almost no charts. A Picture presentation.
A clear structure. A red line you could follow - had to follow - while the speech was given. An Italian SIGNORE making jokes on the Italian way of living.
And somebody ending with a mixed picture ... Celente thinks its likely we will end up in a very nasty century with lots of wars, big wars, close to world wars. On the other hand-side he motivates to become better, to excel and reach out for the best you can reach. An those raise the bar for our so-called leaders.
Very motivating speaker at the end of the show: Mister Dax Dirk Müller.
Four points to take-away from his speech:
- the US and China does not like to see a strong Europe. Europe does not have to fail. We can make a difference - USofA is just afraid of an western power as strong or even stronger then them. We can overcome the European troubles. Do not let US-bankers tell us we cannot.
- bond holders - the huge ones with political influence - made sure they can dump the bonds they hold on central banks. Central banks will buy at the absolute high ... and GS, Pimco and similar guys will sell at the peak. So far, that is just a fact. Interesting question to ask yourself: will current bond holders have enough influence to force stock marekts to break down ... so that they cannot only exit at the peak, but also enter at the (stock market) bottom?
- any credit is a debit. Nice thing is: you pay interest on you own debt (for sure. Be it consumer debt or debt on your mortgage ... that's the way it should be). But then you pay interest on state debt ... as the government will just raise taxes high enough to pay the interest on 'its' debt. And then you pay interest on the debt of all the companies out there. And you do so by paying the price of the goods you need - and this price is full production cost + cost of capital including interest on debt + a margin for the company.
The whole system is stable, as long as debts do not exceed a certain level. Once they do, the 'average guy' (the one with a job, good paying, not in debt, not living on social benefits) will just collapse ... he cannot bear it any longer.
So the share you pay for interest in the system will grow - until you cannot longer stand it. And once you cannot stand it any more, wealth has to be redistributed from the ones 'having' to the ones 'producing'
- and this redistribution can be done two ways: quick or ... slowly / dirty .. .whatever you want to call it. Quick is: Default - Taking wealth from the 'rich' (= middle class) and give it to the others - Expropriation. Slow and dirty is: Inflation.
And we should all hope for the slow and dirty way, as this is the way you (being a guy with wealth, net worth, some assets) can take actions and outsmart the others, protecting at least some of the stuff you did earn and safe, put aside.
Immediate actions of theft you can hardly avoid.
So lets be a (THE) friend of inflation!!!
Let us elect socialist governments!!!
Hail to Obaman!!!
(Sorry - getting sarcastic here.)
No comments:
Post a Comment